Israel’s incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with President Reuven Rivlin on Monday evening shortly after the end of the Simhat Torah holiday, informing him that he was unable to form a governing coalition and formally returning the mandate he had received to do so nearly four weeks ago. On Tuesday morning, Rivlin announced that he was giving Blue and White leader Benny Gantz an opportunity to form a governing coalition and maneuvering by the factions which made it into the 22nd Knesset began almost immediately thereafter.

Turkish President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to resume a full-scale offensive against Kurdish-led forces in north-eastern Syria when a US-brokered ceasefire is scheduled to end, unless the US keeps promises he insisted had been made to him regarding the conflict. Meanwhile, pressure on Turkey to end its invasion of the Kurdish-dominated region has mounted from several quarters in recent days, including the US Congress as well as the Kremlin and even Iran.

Hundreds of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets in Israel’s northern neighbour of Lebanon, angered by years of government corruption, incompetence and mismanagement which has in recent weeks seen an inadequate response to raging forest fires which have destroyed large swaths of forest as well as dozens of homes and businesses. Proposed tax increases on mobile messaging apps as well as other economic austerity measures were the final straw for many protesters whose demands now include the mass exodus of the entire hereditary political class in Lebanon and fresh elections.

Speaker of the Jordanian House of Representatives and president of the Arab Inter-Parliamentary Union, Atef Tarawneh addressed the 141st International Parliamentary Union Assembly in Belgrade on Monday, saying among other things that Israeli “violations” against Jerusalem are putting the peace treaty between Jordan and Israel at risk. “We in Jordan, who are signatory to a peace treaty with the Israeli occupation government, see today that this peace is under threat, in light of the blatant violation of its terms, especially with the issue of Jerusalem,” said Tarawneh.

Talks over the construction of a massive dam by Ethiopia which Egypt says will cripple its economy broke down on Tuesday amidst statements by state-linked media outlets in both countries that they do not wish to go to war over the issue but they are ready to if need be. The $5 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is nearly 70% completed and is set to greatly increase the supply of both water and electricity for Ethiopia’s 100 million+ people, but Egyptian officials openly describe the issue of their water supply as a “matter of life and death” for their equally large population.

Netanyahu might no longer dominate the political landscape the way he has over the past decade. As he returns the mandate to Rivlin, his realistic options are largely limited to blocking Gantz rather than retaining full authority for himself. These scenarios also hint at Israel’s broader transition away from a personally centralized power structure and toward some sort of power-sharing model.

If Syria is ever to emerge out from its “failed state” status, it will require stabilization in terms of security for its people and serious reforms of the civil sector and the economy. However, those fundamental changes are unlikely to be made as long as the Assad regime remains in control. Regrettably, two possible outcomes are the most likely. Either the current violence does not end any time soon, or the regime will regain its control over all of Syria, and will continue to rely on repression until violence breaks out once more or Assad hands over power to another.

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