While it is not universally accepted by all members of the Obama administration, a new report on the war in Afghanistan suggests that any gains made by the United States and its allies will be lost by 2017 as the Taliban and other groups become increasingly influential in the war-torn country and as the U.S. winds down its troop presence there.
According to the report, known as a National Intelligence Estimate, which includes input from all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies. The assessment also predicts that the situation would deteriorate even more rapidly if the U.S. and the Afghan government do not sign a deal that would provide for an international force in Afghanistan after next year’s official draw-down of U.S. troops.
Despite the dire prognosis, one Obama administration official says, “An assessment that says things are going to be gloomy no matter what you do, that you’re just delaying the inevitable, that’s just a view. I would not think it would be the determining view.” Another official says, “I think what we’re going to see is a recalibration of political power, territory and that kind of thing. It’s not going to be an inevitable rise of the Taliban.”
The report does predict that the central Afghan government in Kabul is likely to lose influence over parts of the country and become increasingly irrelevant, similar to the conditions that led to the Afghan civil war of 1992-1996 which resulted in most of the country being controlled by the Taliban.
So, 12 years later, 2,301 American soldiers dead and another 1,124 other coalition soldiers dead in addition to countless numbers of wounded service men and women since U.S. military operations began there in 2001, it appears we’ll be right back where we started in Afghanistan! At least we eventually got Osama bin Laden but then again, that was in Pakistan.
Doesn’t quite peak out on my success meter! 
